Events
Integrated Flood Modeling Brown Bag Seminar Series
The TIFF Integrated Flood Modeling Brown Bag Seminar Series explores state-of-the-art flood modeling and analysis tools and the crucial advancements needed to guide flood resiliency planning, emergency flood-response activities, and other relevant needs of water resource decision-makers.
Are you engaged in research or projects related to integrated flood modeling for the Texas coast? If you have exciting work to showcase related to improving flood hazard analysis approaches and/or modeling that apply to flood hazard estimation for the Texas coast, we encourage you to contact Mohammad.S.Islam@usace.army.mil to discuss presenting at a future seminar.
*Seminar recordings are available by request – please email AnnaHuff@txstate.edu.
2024
An Overview of the NOAA National Water Model & Related Coastal Modeling Activities – April 3, 2024
Featured speakers Brian Cosgrove, NWM Technical Director for the NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP), Camaron George, Coastal Scientist for the Alabama Water Institute, Julio Zyserman, Coastal Scientist for Lynker Technologies, and Derek Giardino, Flood Inundation Development Program Lead for the National Water Center GeoIntelligence Division, delved into the latest upgrades to the National Water Model (NWM) version 3.0. Released in the summer of 2023, NWM v3.0 provides around-the-clock guidance for streamflow and other hydrologic components used by NWS River Forecast Centers, FEMA, various government agencies, as well as research and commercial sectors. It offers first-time total water level (TWL) forecasts in coastal areas throughout the continental U.S., Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hawaii, and parts of Alaska.
Register: https://txstate.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0udOyuqzsiG9Cu-AChze2Yo4HHZhXInP_w
Compound Flood Transition Zone Pilot Study for the Amite River Basin – February 29, 2024
In support of the Louisiana Watershed Initiative, The Water Institute (the Institute) conducted a pilot study to develop a response-based probabilistic compound flood modeling approach that can be used to create Annual Exceedance Probability surfaces of compound flood hazards. In this seminar, the Institute’s Muthu Narayanaswamy, Director of Coastal Compound Flood Risk, and Mark Bartlett, Data Science and Machine Learning Practice Lead, detailed the development of the probabilistic framework, the numerical modeling set-up and the results, including the quantification of uncertainty and bias. They also present the recurrence analysis and compound flood inundation outcomes.
View Compound Flood Transition Zone Pilot Study for the Amite River Basin Presentation
Embracing Uncertainty: Improved Design Storm Modeling Using HEC-HMS – January 18, 2024
Greg Karlovits, Chief of the Hydrology & Statistics Division at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), discussed new methods and tools for quantifying uncertainty in flood frequency analyses using rainfall-runoff models and precipitation data. The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) has features that make it easier to apply data, like NOAA Atlas 14, to generate flow frequency curves, and the USACE is developing new tools and guidance to improve flow frequency estimates and appropriately quantify uncertainty. Mr. Greg highlighted the development of data and tools for conducting stochastic storm transposition (SST) analyses using HEC-HMS, which allows users to generate flow frequency curves at multiple locations within a watershed using a single set of simulations with a data-driven approach.
View Embracing Uncertainty: Improved Design Storm Modeling Using HEC-HMS – January 18, 2024 Presentation
2023
Simulation of Inland-Coastal Compound Flooding: Lessons Learned & Future Plans – December 6, 2023
Dr. Joseph Zhang, Professor at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS), provided an overview of recent advancements in the 3-D Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for the Atlantic Basin (STOFS3D-Atlantic), including a novel semi-automatic mesh generation tool for watershed rivers and the incorporation of Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) altimetry into the modeling system. The lack of bathymetry data for inland rivers is challenging, but VIMS is collaborating with USACE to integrate HEC-RAS data into STOFS3D-Atlantic. Dr. Zhang also discussed the system's recent applications to estuaries in Louisiana and Texas. To enhance interoperability, VIMS is actively working with NOAA and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) to implement a coastal model coupling infrastructure based on the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) or Basic Model Interface (BMI).
Assessing the Potential for Compound Flooding in Texas Using Multivariate Statistical Modeling – October 27, 2023
Different flooding drivers, such as rainfall (or river discharge) and storm surge, can be impelled by the same large-scale metrological forcings, and consequently, their occurrences are often partially correlated. In areas subject to inland and oceanic processes, ignoring the partial correlation may result in underestimating the flood risk and under-design. In this seminar, Dr. Thomas Wahl, Associate Professor at the University of Central Florida, briefly discussed past assumptions made in structural design on these dependencies and highlighted the advantages of copulas over other multivariate statistical models. He outlined some subjective choices in the multivariate statistical analysis, including sampling techniques used to identify extreme events, whether to account for the fit of marginal distributions and time-lags between the two (or more) flooding drivers.
Advances in Real-Time and Future Coastal Hazards Modeling and User Tools for the Gulf Coast and Beyond – September 29, 2023
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program has created several technical approaches and products to evaluate and communicate the risk of coastal hazards to communities nationwide. Dr. Patrick Barnard, Research Geologist at the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, and Dr. Davina Passeri, Research Oceanographer at the USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, shared the latest developments in operational hurricane impact modeling relevant to the Gulf Coast and advancements in projecting future coastal hazards driven by sea level rise and storms, such as beach and dune erosion, compound flooding, and groundwater rise. The presenters also explored public-facing web tools co-developed by the USGS and stakeholders that provide access to hazard information for sharing hazard information to support science-based decision-making and coastal resilience.
Storm Surge Modeling with Compound Flood Effects – July 21, 2023
Dr. Clint Dawson, John J. McKetta Centennial Chair in Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin, discussed storm surge modeling and compound flood effects in Texas, presenting the current state of storm surge modeling for the Texas coast and recent work on extending storm surge models inland to include major Texas rivers. The seminar also focused on current and planned studies of combined surge and rainfall runoff within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model and the research gaps remaining. He also addressed recent advances in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) as applied to storm surges.
View Storm Surge Modeling with Compound Flood Effects – July 21, 2023 Presentation